First, I have a confession to make.
For this year's draft, I spent ten bucks for a 1-year Pro membership to Footballguys.com, used their Draft Dominator app, and then rated everyone through their system. Their ratings do take into account the specific website-specific settings when drafting, and is fully dynamic because as you input the players that come off the board, it not only removes them from consideration but re-ranks things taking into account the strength of the positions remaining.
That said, here are the top twelve teams, in order. Note that not all are projected to be playoff teams, which I'll explain below:
C3FF TOP TWELVE TEAMS (waiver wire order) League - Playoff % chances.
(playoff % chances come from their Rate My Team feature & I don't want to give away too much but obviously higher is better)
1) UPlayToWin ThaGame (1) Minter – 85/80/68 -- My team, C3FF Commish!
2) I WORLEY HAVE THE FUNCHIES! (11) Mills – 85/75/64
3) Andrew’s Panthers (2) Mills – 80/70/59
4) Hog Mollie Heroes (6) Mills – 80/70/59
5) Carruth Carruth is on Fire (3) Rucker – 80/70/56
6) ShaqLivesMatter (12) Minter – 80/70/55
7) BortleMilkBiscuits (2) Minter – 80/65/53
8) Mike After Dinner Minter (6) Muhammed – 80/65/52
9) Team Hazelwood (11) Rucker – 75/65/49
10) @KeepPounding (4) Rucker – 75/65/48
11) Team Sackinger (2) Muhammed – 75/60/44
12) Can You do the Cam Cam (5) Muhammed – 75/60/44
*in case of 3-way % tie (11 & 12 for instance), team with higher waiver wire # wins tiebreaker.
One problem, however. All three of the top teams in the Minter League are in the same division.
Going just on the numbers, it means team Make AmeriCAM Great aGinn wins their division and team BortleMilk Biscuits pushes and finishes 3rd in their division and lose a playoff spot with a better record than the other division's winner. I think the Minter League might be the most lopsided one division-wise of any in the whole league.
*Make aMeriCAM Great aGinn – 75/60/43
My Team & Analysis for a Reference Point:
My picks vs C3FF ADP in other 3 leagues vs ACTUAL VALUE in PPR leagues & position value:
1) Lamar Miller (12) vs 14, 15, 9 – ACTUAL VALUE (PPR): 7th – RB3
2) DeAndre Hopkins (13) vs 11, 7, 10 – ACTUAL VALUE (PPR): 6th – WR4
3) Matt Forte (36) vs 26, 49, 58 – ACTUAL VALUE (PPR): 23rd – RB10
4) Latavius Murray (37) vs 58, 53, 60 – ACTUAL VALUE (PPR): 33rd – RB14
5) Drew Brees (60) vs 56, 58, 52 – ACTUAL VALUE (PPR): 48th – QB4
6) Travis Kelce (61) vs 71, 42, 39 – ACTUAL VALUE (PPR): 54th – TE3
7) Michael Crabtree (84) vs 85, 93, 71 – ACTUAL VALUE (PPR): 68th – WR30
8) Charles Sims (85) vs 125, 125, ND – ACTUAL VALUE (PPR): 89th – RB31
9) Kevin White (108) – ACTUAL VALUE (PPR): 92nd – WR42
10) Willie Snead (109) – ACTUAL VALUE (PPR): 90th – WR41
11) Jameis Winston (132) – ACTUAL VALUE (PPR): 64th – QB7
12) Mohammed Sanu (133) – ACTUAL VALUE (PPR): 131st – WR52
13) Mason Crosby (156) – ACTUAL VALUE (PPR): (186th)…PK-5
14) Vikings D/ST (157) – ACTUAL VALUE (PPR): (160th)…TD-6
*Remember, this is a half-PPR league but RBs get points for carries as well.
As you can see, other thank for kickers and D/ST, which are both top-echelon, every pick I made was at a premium value to the player I selected. Better to select the 48th best player with the 60th pick than the 60th best player with the 48th pick, right? In fact, the only "reach" of any kind I made was extremely mild...when I drafted Charles Sims in round 8 number 85 overall he's rated 89th overall. I'm not sold on Doug Martin's 50/50 health.
So while I can "brag" about all the pre-season stuff I want to and how well I drafted overall, I'm not ashamed to admit I had assistance. Still, a bit of gut feeling stuff went into my drafting. I hadn't planned on taking a QB very early at all, but when Drew Brees was sitting there at the end of the 5th round & 60th overall, I pounced. I added another rare commodity, a TE that actually can produce in Travis Kelce, with the 61st pick.
Didn't need their program to figure out that duo.
Another reason I feel I'm tops to start with is something I think is overlooked/undervalued going into the season, and that's your position on the waiver wire. Drafting last means I get dibs on the waiver wire, and that's as good if not better than having the top draft pick!
Why's that? Simple. You get to see all of week one's games actually played. Then you get to pick from all the leftover players. In a league with a shallow bench like this one, an injury can cause a seismic shift in the waiver wire. So while you may not get a star player, you can almost always get a season-starting upgrade. That gives you an edge the others don't have.
I also drafted a top-ten projected fantasy QB in Jameis Winston so I could conceivably absorb one season-ending injury and still be competitive instead of giving up all hope, so it's a solid team from all directions.
Now for the Razzies:
WORST TEAM: Chattahoochee Hoochiecoochies – 30/20/3
SECOND WORST TEAM: Game of Joan’s JJ – 35/20/6
-- both in LEAGUE MILLS
...next up: Where all the Carolina Panthers went in each draft!
Follow me on Twitter @Ken_Dye